Uganda National Farmers Federation

• Reduction in soil fertility through leaching. As soils heat up some important bacteria in the soil die.
• Decreased livestock productivity directly through higher temperatures and indirectly through changes in the availability of feed and water;
• Increased incidences and resistance of pests and disease  on crops and livestock due to favourable conditions created by a rise in temperature;
• Manifestation of vector and vector-borne diseases.
• Crop failure and high pre and post harvest losses due to prolonged dry spells, flooding and water logging.
• Extinction of some vegetation species.
• Increase in hailstorms, flooding, water logging and droughts.

• The evolving weak to moderate El Niño episode in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean which is likely to continue up to early 2010.
• Warmer than average SSTs are projected over the central Indian Ocean, and much of the Atlantic Ocean.

Based on the above considerations as well as details of the climatology, trends of the ongoing weather patterns and the physical features of the different regions of the country, the Department of Meteorology has down-scaled the regional forecast as follows:

 General Outlook/Forecast
Overall, there is an increased likelihood of near normal to above normal rainfall over most parts of Uganda, as indicated in the map above.

Regional summaries

South Western:     Kisoro, Kabale, Rukungiri, Kanungu, Ntungamo,   Isingiro, Mbarara, Kiruhura, Bushenyi, Ibanda
The region is currently receiving intermittent rains that are likely to persist up to late September/mid October when steady rains will set in. Peak (El Niño) rains are expected to set in during late October and persist up to around late December/ early January. Overall there are high chances of near normal to above normal rains over most parts of this region.

Central Western:  Masindi, Hoima, Kibaale, Kiboga,  Bundibugyo,    Kasese, Kabarole, Kyenjojo, Kamwenge
Currently the region is experiencing dry spells punctuated with intermittent showers that are expected to persist up to mid September when steady rains will set in. Peak (El Niño) rains are likely to set in during early October and continue to early January next year 2010. Overall there are high chances of near normal to above normal rains.

North Western:     Moyo, Arua, Terego, Nebbi, Okoro, Adjumani, Yumbe
Currently this region is experiencing intermittent rains punctuated by incidents of dry spells. Peak (El Niño) are expected to set in around mid October and continue up to early December, with the main peak from late October to mid November. Overall near to below normal rains are expected.

Western Lake Victoria Basin:    Kalangala, Kampala, Wakiso, Eastern  Masaka, South Mpigi
The region has been experiencing drier than normal conditions since June. Currently the dry spells are being punctuated by intermittent outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms which are intense on some occasions. The onset of El Niño rains is expected around early October with a peak from about mid November. The season is expected to end in early January next year. Overall there are enhanced probabilities for near normal to above normal rains.

 Eastern Lake Victoria Basin:     South Jinja, South Bugiri, South Busia, Mayuge
Currently this region is experiencing occasional showers and thunderstorms punctuated by dry spells. There is likely to be a decline before the start of steady rains around late September. El Niño rains are expected to set off around early October and reach a peak in early November to early December. The season is expected to end around mid December.
 
Western parts of Central:  Mubende, Mpigi, Luwero, Kiboga, Nakasongola, Sembabule, Western Masaka, Rakai
Currently the region is experiencing a dry spell punctuated by intermittent outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms. El Niño rains are expected to set in around mid October and reach maximum intensity during late November/early December. Cessation is expected around mid/late December.

Eastern parts of Central:    Mukono, South Kayunga
The region is currently experiencing dry spells punctuated by increasing outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms. The onset of El Niño rains is expected around early October and to reach a peak mid November/ early December. Cessation of the rains is expected around late December/early January next year.

South Eastern:      Jinja, Kamuli, Iganga, Bugiri, Busia and  Tororo
The on-going outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms, punctuated by short dry spells are expected to continue up to mid September. Thereafter El Niño rains are expected to set in reaching maximum intensity around mid October to late November. Cessation is expected late December/early January.

Eastern Central: Pallisa, Budaka, Mbale, Sironko, Manafwa, Kapchorwa  Kumi, Kaberamaido, Soroti
This region is currently receiving moderate rains after a long dry spell since June. The moderate rains, punctuated by dry spells are expected to give way to the onset of El Niño rains early October. Maximum intensity of the rains is expected around mid October/early November and cessation around late December.

 North Eastern:     Katakwi, Moroto, Kotido, Nakapiripit
This region experiences the peak of the season from around mid August to late September. However, this is likely to be suppressed. Currently the region is experiencing outbursts of short-lived showers which are expected to continue up to about mid October when El Niño rains are expected. The, rains are however, expected to be moderate but are likely to persist up to late November.
 
Western Parts:     Amuru, Gulu, Apac, Amolatar
After emerging from a prolonged dry spell, the region is currently experiencing moderate seasonal rains punctuated by occasional short-lived dry spells which are expected to persist up to early October. El Niño rains are expected to set in around mid October and persist up to late November with a peak in late October to mid November when the normal season should be on a decline. Cessation is expected late November/early December.

Eastern Parts:      Lira, Kitgum, Pader, Abim
The region is currently experiencing moderate rains punctuated by short-lived dry spells which are expected to continue up to late September when El Niño rains are likely to set in. The peak of the rains is expected mid/late October and cessation early/mid December.

Implications of the Expected El Nino Rains
El Niño rains expected in the country during the month of October and November 2009 are likely to have the following impacts on the Agricultural Sector.

• Flooding and water logging in lowlands and swampy areas across the country. This may cause rotting of root crops and disease outbreaks in livestock. All low land areas across the country are at risk, especially those in catchment areas of water bodies, and those within the dry belt from the eastern region through central to the western region.
• Development and spread of fungal and bacterial diseases on crops especially for vegetables, tomatoes, Irish potatoes and pulses.
• Outbreak of Livestock pests and diseases linked to heavy rains should be expected especially foot rot, liver flukes, worms, ticks, tick borne diseases and biting flies.
•  Soil Erosion and depletion are expected as a result of, water run-offs and flash-floods. The vulnerable areas are those lying within the cattle corridor, Karamoja, and highland areas of Mbale, Kapchorwa and south western Uganda. These highland areas are also likely to have some landslides.
•  Landslides are expected in hilly areas of South western Uganda, Bugisu and Sebei.
• The expected El nino rains are likely to enhance production of plantation crops such as coffee, bananas, and tea; enhance production of cereals such as rice, maize, sorghum, and millet; avail water and pasture for livestock and increase fish production in water bodies and fish ponds.

The farming community is advised to note the above mentioned likely impacts of the expected Elnino rains and the long rainy season, and abide by the following advice, with guidance from the nearest Agricultural Extension Workers:

Crop Sub-Sector

Local Food Processing: Those farmers with cassava and sweet potatoe gardens in low land areas, ready for harvesting are advised to harvest and keep them in dry form during the month of September to avoid losses in case flooding and water logging happens.

Water and Soil Conservation: Water and soil are the main resources that determine production in agricultural sector. In this era of climate change these two resources are vulnerable. All farmers are called upon to apply appropriate soil and water conservation measures suitable in their location as they carryout their agricultural activities to check landslides, water runoffs soil erosion and leaching of soil nutrients. Farmers in high land areas are encouraged to practice terracing and contour planting to minimize soil leaching, erosion and landslides. Local leaders are called upon to take this seriously and start enforcing the existing ordinances and bye laws on land use. Legal action should be taken to enforce the ordinances and bye laws.

Water Harvesting: As you wait for this season’s rains to begin, clear all water ways leading to water harvesting structures so as to harvest as much water as possible for household and livestock use. Clear the water channels along your gardens to allow smooth water flow and reduce on the risk of flooding when rains start.

Timely Planting: The on-going rains in the districts that receive bimodal rains mark the on-set of rains for the second season.  You are advised to use the ongoing intermittent rains to clear all the gardens and plant all crops during the month of September to ensure that the peak growing stages, especially for cereals coincides and benefits from El Nino rains of October and November. To ensure maximum production, farmers in areas where rains are expected to continue up to January next year, are encouraged to plant hybrid varieties and use fertilizers.  Avoid planting in lowland and swampy areas where flooding is expected. Where you must plant, make sure all the water ways are cleared to improve on the drainage and minimize the flooding. Avoid planting root crops during the peak period of rains because it affects rooting. Root crops should be planted in September, and towards the end of the rainy season. Normally an El Nino season is not good for beans, but nevertheless, try to stagger bean planting through out the season, especially those varieties that tolerate heavy rains.

Control of Crop diseases: Such heavy rains as expected encourage development of certain fungal and bacterial diseases, especially for vegetables, tomatoes and Irish potatoes and beans. These are likely, to occur, and farmers should endeavour to observe proper husbandry practices to minimise their incidence, and to control them where it is economic. 

Post harvest losses: High pre-harvest and post –harvest losses are expected in the  in Lango, Acholi, and West Nile sub- regions where maturity and harvesting of most crops are likely to coincide with heavy rains of October and November. 

Enforcement of ordinances and bye laws by local Government: The issue of land degradation is becoming more prominent because of poor land management practices. This has been aggravated by bush burning. Local Governments in the whole country are reminded to re-enforce the existing ordinances and bye laws on land management and take punitive measures against defaulters.

Karamoja Region
This region has only one rainy season in a year, which begins in April and ends in October. This year (2009), rains have been inadequate and poorly distributed. The dry spells experienced in the season stressed most crops that had been planted. The harvesting of the few crops is already on-going.  This forecast indicates that the on-going outbursts of short-lived showers are expected to continue up to about mid October when moderate El Niño rains are expected to begin and continue up to late November. Farmers in this region are advised to make use of an extension of the rainy season by a month and plant crops that can mature within three months. Farmers are advised to harvest as much water as possible for  livestock to take them through the dry months that will follow before the next rains begin next year (March 2010).

Livestock Sub-sector

• With such heavy rains, a boost in pasture and collection of water for livestock is expected; it is therefore an ideal time to plant pasture because the long rains will favour growth. Livestock farmers are therefore advised to improve the available pasture by planting pasture seeds. This planting should target raised areas, because the likely flooding in lowland areas is likely to submerge available pasture for livestock and kill the planted seeds. All water ways leading to various watering points should be cleared to ensure harvesting of adequate clean water.
• Ensure appropriate livestock housing with good drainage and hygiene, especially for pigs, calves and goats to reduce the development of diseases.
• Rainy conditions encourage increased incidences of biting flies, tsetse flies and ticks. Farmers are advised to be ready to increase the frequency of spraying with acaricides that kill both ticks and flies to at least weekly. Use of fly-traps in milking parlours is also encouraged.
• The mud and stagnant water due to heavy rains in most cases favour development of foot rot, foot and mouth diseases, and liver flukes. Such circumstances also result in increased number of biting flies that may cause lumpy skin disease; Farmers should be ready for the outbreak of such diseases.
• Make use of the long rainy season to improve on the quality of pastures. Approach your nearest Veterinary officers on the appropriate pasture seeds to plant, and the technologies for making hay and silage.

Fisheries Sub-sector

Water run-offs from the expected heavy rains carry a lot of materials into large water bodies which are favourable for the growth of food for fish phytoplankton (small plants) and zooplankton (small animals) both in fish ponds and water bodies. Food availability and the cold temperatures of the water during the rainy season are expected to enhance feeding, and breeding for fish in the shallow ends of the waters, resulting in heavy catches. This season, therefore, high fish catch is expected from water bodies in the country.

In conclusion, I would like to inform the public that climate change is now a global concern and Uganda, among other countries, is already experiencing its adverse effects. Live example is the on-going general food shortage caused by erratic rains received during the first season (2009A). This situation and the ongoing high food prices are expected to reach a peak during the months of October and November, just before the second season’s harvest is accessed. The regions already most affected are Karamoja, Teso, Acholi and Lango, and other hot spots within the cattle corridor. Lack of adequate household food stocks has been identified as a major factor that has continued to cause food shortage in the country, even in situations when harvests are fairly good. Some households sell-off most of their harvested food. All households across the country are arged to use the available food stocks harvested, and retain adequate stocks for the hunger period likely to start early in October and continue through November. In this regard, Agricultural Extension Workers and Local Leaders are called upon to sensitize communities about these major threats/causes, and to emphasize the importance of storing food in their homes. Households should have a food security garden at any one time. Local leaders in particular are again requested to enforce the available food security ordinances and by-laws.

Hon. Hope R. Mwesigye
MINISTER OF AGRICULTURE, ANIMAL INDUSTRY & FISHERIES